Why The Palin Peak Was Predictable

Twitter Palin Peak

Twit­ter Palin Peak

Twit­ter has seen much media cov­er­age lately, par­tic­u­larly dur­ing heavy usage peri­ods like the Gus­tav and Han­nah hur­ri­canes and of course, dur­ing the nation’s nom­i­na­tion of it’s high­est elected offi­cials. Seems that even the most respectable and resis­tant users have finally come aboard and are actively tweeting.

A cou­ple of days ago the Twit­ter blog posted an image (shown above) which shows the dra­matic increase of tweets per sec­ond that occurred dur­ing Gov­er­nor Palin’s speech. The news media is all abuzz over the seem­ingly expo­nen­tial growth of Twit­ter users, but this rate of growth was designed into Twitter’s architecture.

Twit­ter is a plat­form engi­neered upon the “viral expan­sion loop” con­cept. This con­cept, when done right, vir­tu­ally guar­an­tees self-​​replication – because that’s really all a “viral expan­sion loop” is, a sys­tem that nat­u­rally dou­bles and triples and quadru­ples till its much big­ger than any­one ever expected. Because these sys­tems typ­i­cally start small, the media tend to dis­miss them as a a great idea that no one cares about. Also, very typ­i­cally, the media have to go back and eat their words in 12 or 18 months when these plat­forms have repli­cated to the point that they can no longer be ignored. That’s cer­tainly the case with Twitter.

Now that Twit­ter is being taken seri­ously in main­stream media because of the ele­gant way it helps users broad­cast what’s going on in their world, the media’s sur­prise is cer­tainly laugh­able. Nec­es­sar­ily Twit­ter will have peaks dur­ing times of nation­wide inter­est, such as the RNC. But Twitter’s increased uptime has helped it to man­age this pre­dictable boost in tweets per sec­ond on its servers.

Twit­ter is built on a viral expan­sion plat­form – it was designed specif­i­cally to exploit viral loops. Why the sur­prise? Any ideas?